{
  "metadati": {
    "licenza": "CC BY 4.0",
    "licenza_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "attribuzione": "Luca Valente",
    "nota_licenza_fonti": "CC BY 4.0 applies to the original compilation and editorial work by Luca Valente. Underlying third-party data retain their source terms, including Coin Metrics CC BY-NC 4.0 where indicated; this export does not replace those terms.",
    "fonte": "Coin Metrics Community Data (CC BY-NC 4.0): price, MVRV, hash rate, addresses, transactions, issuance, exchange flows and balances; Deribit (DVOL)",
    "fonti": [
      "Coin Metrics Community Data (CC BY-NC 4.0): price, MVRV, hash rate, addresses, transactions, issuance, exchange flows and balances",
      "Deribit (DVOL)"
    ],
    "sorgente": "dati/cruscotti/bitcoin_macro/latest.json",
    "data": "2026-10-08"
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  "dati": {
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    "titolo": "Bitcoin Macro Board",
    "data": "2026-10-08",
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      "TxCnt": "2026-10-08",
      "SplyCur": "2026-10-08",
      "HashRate": "2026-10-08",
      "PriceUSD": "2026-10-08",
      "CapMVRVCur": "2026-10-08",
      "CapMrktCurUSD": "2026-10-08",
      "IssTotUSD": "2026-10-08",
      "FlowInExNtv": "2026-10-08",
      "FlowOutExNtv": "2026-10-08",
      "SplyExNtv": "2026-10-08"
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      "nota": "Coin Metrics is the daily reference price; CoinGecko in the archive is the price at 00:00 UTC of the same day: they differ by the move within the day"
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                -43279.38
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                -49901.8
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                -62926.61
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                -64246.84
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                -71177.52
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                -74296.29
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                -73702.76
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                -81721.98
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                -83229.3
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                -78714.97
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                -83506.6
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            ]
          },
          {
            "etichetta": "Bitcoin held on exchanges (BTC)",
            "unita": "unita",
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              [
                "2026-07-11",
                2651439.48
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              [
                "2026-07-12",
                2652154.65
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                2659494.76
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                2661194.58
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                2660187.53
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                2655104.66
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                2652536.35
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                2654180.5
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                2650004.36
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                2646860.1
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                2649847.57
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                2648456.51
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                2653687.25
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                2651341.83
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                2651640.28
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                2653084.77
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                2646553.66
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                2654863.11
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                2663166.95
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                2665034.48
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                2666330.4
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                2675995.78
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                2676998.09
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                2669254.99
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                2667057.73
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                2667540.89
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                2664078.18
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                2665762.65
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                2667827.38
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                2673653.77
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                2679179.37
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                2681208.68
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                2728162.92
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                2731026.61
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                2732483.5
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                2715632.86
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                2705334.79
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                2706447.71
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                2704499.65
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                2705198.75
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                2710330.23
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                2718781.15
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                2719494.22
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                2705076.07
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                2695208.79
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                "2026-09-24",
                2690688.98
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                "2026-09-25",
                2685118.66
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                2682220.89
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                "2026-09-27",
                2682330.44
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                "2026-09-29",
                2686232.37
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                "2026-09-30",
                2681920.5
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                2677736.46
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                "2026-10-02",
                2678292.2
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                "2026-10-03",
                2673623.79
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                "2026-10-04",
                2675688.67
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                "2026-10-05",
                2674314.58
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                "2026-10-06",
                2660207.43
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                "2026-10-07",
                2663366.68
              ],
              [
                "2026-10-08",
                2665392.04
              ]
            ]
          },
          {
            "etichetta": "DVOL: 30-day implied volatility index",
            "unita": "unita",
            "punti": [
              [
                "2026-07-11",
                36.78
              ],
              [
                "2026-07-12",
                37.2
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              [
                "2026-07-13",
                37.78
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              [
                "2026-07-14",
                36.48
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              [
                "2026-07-15",
                35.98
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                "2026-07-16",
                36.37
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                "2026-07-17",
                36.33
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                "2026-07-18",
                35.72
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              [
                "2026-07-19",
                36.11
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              [
                "2026-07-20",
                36.26
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              [
                "2026-07-21",
                37.32
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              [
                "2026-07-22",
                38.01
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              [
                "2026-07-23",
                38.47
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              [
                "2026-07-24",
                37.02
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              [
                "2026-07-25",
                37.71
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              [
                "2026-07-26",
                37.34
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              [
                "2026-07-27",
                37.45
              ],
              [
                "2026-07-28",
                37.24
              ],
              [
                "2026-07-29",
                37.45
              ],
              [
                "2026-07-30",
                35.55
              ],
              [
                "2026-07-31",
                35.64
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-01",
                35.55
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-02",
                35.05
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-03",
                34.76
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-04",
                34.04
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-05",
                34.66
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-06",
                34.98
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-07",
                33.94
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-08",
                34.23
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-09",
                34.93
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-10",
                36.33
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-11",
                36.13
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-12",
                35.82
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-13",
                34.81
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-14",
                34.74
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-15",
                35.02
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-16",
                35.16
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-17",
                34.72
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-18",
                34.9
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-19",
                37.84
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-20",
                39.44
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-21",
                43.29
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-22",
                42.27
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-23",
                43.18
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-24",
                43.41
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-25",
                43.28
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-26",
                40.37
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-27",
                41.52
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-28",
                38.34
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-29",
                37.43
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-30",
                36.99
              ],
              [
                "2026-08-31",
                37.63
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-01",
                37.93
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-02",
                37.19
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-03",
                39.78
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-04",
                37.96
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-05",
                38.66
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-06",
                39.32
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-07",
                38.79
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-08",
                39.92
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-09",
                40.2
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-10",
                40.24
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-11",
                36.75
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-12",
                36.98
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-13",
                38.89
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-14",
                38.57
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-15",
                39.01
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-16",
                36.19
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-17",
                33.59
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-18",
                35.46
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-19",
                36.32
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-20",
                35.65
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-21",
                38.14
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-22",
                37.4
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-23",
                35.81
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-24",
                36.04
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-25",
                34.62
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-26",
                34.92
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-27",
                35.07
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-28",
                35.93
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-29",
                35.12
              ],
              [
                "2026-09-30",
                35.23
              ],
              [
                "2026-10-01",
                36.44
              ],
              [
                "2026-10-02",
                34.82
              ],
              [
                "2026-10-03",
                35.36
              ],
              [
                "2026-10-04",
                36.5
              ],
              [
                "2026-10-05",
                36.1
              ],
              [
                "2026-10-06",
                36.13
              ],
              [
                "2026-10-07",
                36.76
              ],
              [
                "2026-10-08",
                37.74
              ]
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "macro",
        "titolo": "Macro backdrop",
        "stato": "expanding",
        "disponibile": true,
        "da_quando": "2026-10-05",
        "indicatori": [
          {
            "nome": "ISM manufacturing",
            "valore": 54.5,
            "unita": "index",
            "mese": "September 2026",
            "valore_precedente": 54.6,
            "variazione": -0.1,
            "fonte": "ISM"
          },
          {
            "nome": "ISM services",
            "valore": 54.9,
            "unita": "index",
            "mese": "September 2026",
            "valore_precedente": 55.4,
            "variazione": -0.5,
            "fonte": "ISM"
          },
          {
            "nome": "US unemployment rate",
            "valore": 4.2,
            "unita": "percent",
            "mese": "September 2026",
            "valore_precedente": 4.1,
            "variazione": 0.1,
            "fonte": "BLS"
          },
          {
            "nome": "US inflation, year on year",
            "valore": 3.35,
            "unita": "percent",
            "mese": "August 2026",
            "valore_precedente": 3.3,
            "variazione": 0.05,
            "fonte": "BLS"
          },
          {
            "nome": "US 10-year real yield",
            "valore": 2.87,
            "unita": "percent",
            "mese": "2026-10-08",
            "valore_precedente": 2.92,
            "variazione": -0.05,
            "fonte": "US Treasury"
          },
          {
            "nome": "US dollar index (broad)",
            "valore": 121.38,
            "unita": "index",
            "mese": "2026-10-02",
            "valore_precedente": 121.79,
            "variazione": -0.4,
            "fonte": "Federal Reserve"
          }
        ],
        "regola": "the macro reading is a composite of leading macro indicators; it is compared with its level 30 days earlier: higher by 0.5 or more is expanding, lower by 0.5 or more is contracting, in between is flat",
        "nota": "the composite history starts on 2026-09-12: the comparison covers the 27 days available, not 30",
        "data_macro": "2026-10-09"
      }
    ],
    "frasi": [
      {
        "id": "mayer",
        "testo": "Bitcoin traded at 1.14 times its 200-day average, the 52nd percentile of its own history",
        "modello": "cruscotti.bitcoin_macro.mayer",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "mayer": 1.1385,
          "percentile_storia": 52.1
        },
        "misura": "mayer",
        "finestra_giorni": 200,
        "base": 5728,
        "base_minima": 1000,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "mvrv",
        "testo": "Bitcoin's market value was 1.52 times its realised value, the 64th percentile of the past year",
        "modello": "cruscotti.bitcoin_macro.mvrv",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "mvrv": 1.5192,
          "percentile_1a": 64.1
        },
        "misura": "mvrv",
        "finestra_giorni": 365,
        "base": 5927,
        "base_minima": 1000,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "offerta_exchange",
        "testo": "Bitcoin held on exchanges fell 1.4% in 30 days, to 2.67M BTC",
        "modello": "cruscotti.bitcoin_macro.offerta_exchange",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "variazione_30g": -0.0144,
          "btc": 2665392.04
        },
        "misura": "offerta_exchange",
        "finestra_giorni": 30,
        "base": 2665392.04,
        "base_minima": 100000.0,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "conteggio",
        "testo": "3 of 12 Bitcoin measures expanded over 30 days, 2 contracted",
        "modello": "cruscotti.bitcoin_macro.conteggio",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "espanse": 3,
          "contratte": 2,
          "misure": 12
        },
        "misura": "bitcoin_macro",
        "finestra_giorni": 30,
        "cancello": "passa"
      }
    ],
    "fonti": [
      "Coin Metrics Community Data (CC BY-NC 4.0): price, MVRV, hash rate, addresses, transactions, issuance, exchange flows and balances",
      "Deribit (DVOL)"
    ],
    "fuori": "not shown because not available without a paid key: realized value, NUPL, Puell multiple, SOPR, CDD, active supply by age, difficulty, ETF flows",
    "metodo": "the regression line is fitted on all prices through the day shown and applied to past days too (a look back, not what was known then); each measure: today's value, percentile on its own history (one year and full), and expanding / contracting / flat over 30 days with the band written next to it; levels against the median of the 5 days around 30 days earlier, sums through 2026-10-07 against the 30 days before",
    "cancello": "ok",
    "cancello_nota": "gate result for the sentences: ok = at least one sentence passed; each sentence carries its own result; the values in tables and history are not certified one by one",
    "motivi": [],
    "immagini": {
      "1600x900": "immagine_2026-10-08_1600x900.png",
      "1080x1350": "immagine_2026-10-08_1080x1350.png"
    },
    "immagine_titolo": "Bitcoin traded at 1.14 times its 200-day average, the 52nd percentile of its own history",
    "carta_x": {
      "file": "x_card.png",
      "formato": "1200x675",
      "data": "2026-10-08",
      "nuova": true,
      "modello": "D",
      "frase_id": "conteggio",
      "titolo": "Bitcoin is 34.5% below its Oct 2025 high",
      "note": [
        "High: $125K, 6 Oct 2025",
        "8 Oct 2024: $62K",
        "8 Oct: $82K, 34.5% below the high"
      ]
    },
    "immagini_problemi": 0,
    "generato_il": "2026-10-09T03:52:52Z"
  }
}