{
  "metadati": {
    "licenza": "CC BY 4.0",
    "licenza_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "attribuzione": "Luca Valente",
    "nota_licenza_fonti": "CC BY 4.0 applies to the original compilation and editorial work by Luca Valente. Underlying third-party data retain their source terms, including Coin Metrics CC BY-NC 4.0 where indicated; this export does not replace those terms.",
    "fonte": "FRED (BAMLC0A4CBBBEY); FRED (DFII10); FRED (DTWEXBGS); FRED (NASDAQCOM); FRED (SP500); FRED (T10Y2Y); DefiLlama (value locked, stablecoins, fees); Coin Metrics Community Data (Bitcoin price)",
    "fonti": [
      "FRED (BAMLC0A4CBBBEY)",
      "FRED (DFII10)",
      "FRED (DTWEXBGS)",
      "FRED (NASDAQCOM)",
      "FRED (SP500)",
      "FRED (T10Y2Y)",
      "DefiLlama (value locked, stablecoins, fees)",
      "Coin Metrics Community Data (Bitcoin price)"
    ],
    "sorgente": "dati/cruscotti/macro_x_crypto/latest.json",
    "data": "2026-10-08"
  },
  "dati": {
    "nome": "macro_x_crypto",
    "titolo": "Macro x Crypto Bridge",
    "data": "2026-10-08",
    "dati_fino_a": "2026-09-27",
    "parola": null,
    "da_quando": null,
    "fermo": null,
    "settimane_per_correlazione": {
      "finestra": 13,
      "minimo_di_coppie": 11
    },
    "cadenza": "weekly",
    "ultima_settimana": "2026-09-21",
    "blocchi": [
      {
        "id": "coppie",
        "titolo": "Four pairs followed every week",
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            "etichetta": "US 10-year real yield and Bitcoin price: correlation of weekly changes over 13 weeks",
            "valore": -0.25,
            "unita": null,
            "tredici_settimane_prima": -0.56,
            "ventisei_settimane": -0.29,
            "percentile_1a": 26.9,
            "percentile_storia": 31.9,
            "storia_dal": "2024-12-09",
            "stato": "expanding",
            "banda_flat": 0.2,
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            "dati_fino_a": "2026-09-27"
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            "dati_fino_a": "2026-09-27"
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                "2025-10-06",
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                "2025-10-13",
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                "2026-06-01",
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                "2026-06-08",
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                "2026-06-15",
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                "2026-06-22",
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                "2026-06-29",
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                "2026-07-06",
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                "2026-07-13",
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                "2026-07-20",
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                "2026-07-27",
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                "2026-08-03",
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            "etichetta": "US dollar index (broad) and Stablecoin supply",
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                "2026-03-09",
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                "2026-05-04",
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                "2026-05-25",
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                "2026-06-08",
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                "2026-06-22",
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                "2026-06-29",
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                "2026-07-13",
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                "2026-07-20",
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                "2026-07-27",
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      },
      {
        "id": "tabella",
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            "Macro series",
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            "13 weeks earlier",
            "Correlation, 26 weeks",
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            "Highest"
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              "US 10-year real yield",
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              -0.29,
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              -0.07
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            [
              "US 10-year real yield",
              "DeFi value locked",
              -0.23,
              -0.33,
              -0.12,
              "7 of 13",
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              -0.1
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              "US 10-year real yield",
              "Stablecoin supply",
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              -0.23,
              -0.15,
              "6 of 13",
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              0.26
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            [
              "US 10-year real yield",
              "Fees paid to protocols, weekly",
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              0.02,
              -0.07,
              "8 of 13",
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              0.41
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            [
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              "DeFi value locked",
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              -0.63,
              -0.38,
              "9 of 13",
              -0.64,
              -0.08
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            [
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              -0.26,
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              0.1
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              "US dollar index (broad)",
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              -0.48,
              0.16,
              -0.1,
              "4 of 13",
              -0.52,
              0.55
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            [
              "10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield",
              "Bitcoin price",
              -0.03,
              0.22,
              0.12,
              "5 of 13",
              -0.14,
              0.36
            ],
            [
              "10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield",
              "DeFi value locked",
              -0.17,
              0.11,
              0.05,
              "4 of 13",
              -0.26,
              0.36
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            [
              "10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield",
              "Stablecoin supply",
              -0.22,
              0.11,
              -0.04,
              "5 of 13",
              -0.51,
              0.1
            ],
            [
              "10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield",
              "Fees paid to protocols, weekly",
              0.05,
              -0.22,
              -0.04,
              "8 of 13",
              -0.35,
              0.05
            ],
            [
              "BBB corporate spread over 10-year Treasury",
              "Bitcoin price",
              -0.19,
              -0.51,
              -0.33,
              "6 of 13",
              -0.6,
              -0.19
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            [
              "BBB corporate spread over 10-year Treasury",
              "DeFi value locked",
              -0.22,
              -0.4,
              -0.26,
              "6 of 13",
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              -0.22
            ],
            [
              "BBB corporate spread over 10-year Treasury",
              "Stablecoin supply",
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              -0.73,
              -0.31,
              "8 of 13",
              -0.68,
              0.58
            ],
            [
              "BBB corporate spread over 10-year Treasury",
              "Fees paid to protocols, weekly",
              0.37,
              0.04,
              0.17,
              "6 of 13",
              0.02,
              0.51
            ],
            [
              "S&P 500",
              "Bitcoin price",
              -0.22,
              0.76,
              0.26,
              "7 of 13",
              -0.22,
              0.74
            ],
            [
              "S&P 500",
              "DeFi value locked",
              -0.29,
              0.55,
              0.12,
              "5 of 13",
              -0.29,
              0.61
            ],
            [
              "S&P 500",
              "Stablecoin supply",
              -0.13,
              0.85,
              0.49,
              "8 of 13",
              -0.13,
              0.77
            ],
            [
              "S&P 500",
              "Fees paid to protocols, weekly",
              -0.2,
              0.04,
              -0.09,
              "10 of 13",
              -0.41,
              0.08
            ],
            [
              "Nasdaq Composite",
              "Bitcoin price",
              -0.19,
              0.77,
              0.31,
              "8 of 13",
              -0.19,
              0.73
            ],
            [
              "Nasdaq Composite",
              "DeFi value locked",
              -0.25,
              0.53,
              0.15,
              "6 of 13",
              -0.25,
              0.57
            ],
            [
              "Nasdaq Composite",
              "Stablecoin supply",
              -0.07,
              0.83,
              0.52,
              "7 of 13",
              -0.07,
              0.77
            ],
            [
              "Nasdaq Composite",
              "Fees paid to protocols, weekly",
              -0.17,
              0.05,
              -0.06,
              "9 of 13",
              -0.35,
              0.08
            ]
          ]
        },
        "nota": "weekly changes over closed weeks; a 30-day window is not computed: weekly data would give 4 points. A correlation says two series moved together over the period, not that one moves the other"
      }
    ],
    "frasi": [
      {
        "id": "correlazione_real_yield_10y_bitcoin",
        "testo": "The 13-week correlation between US 10-year real yield and Bitcoin price was -0.25, from -0.56 13 weeks earlier",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.correlazione",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "r": -0.25,
          "r_prima": -0.56,
          "settimane": 13
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "direzione_real_yield_10y_bitcoin",
        "testo": "Bitcoin price and US 10-year real yield moved in the same direction in 7 of the last 13 weeks",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.stessa_direzione",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "stessa_direzione": 7,
          "settimane": 13
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "stabile_real_yield_10y_bitcoin",
        "testo": "The correlation between US 10-year real yield and Bitcoin price stayed between -0.38 and -0.07 over the last 13 weeks",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.stabile",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "minimo": -0.38,
          "massimo": -0.07
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "correlazione_dollar_index_bitcoin",
        "testo": "The 13-week correlation between US dollar index (broad) and Bitcoin price was -0.15, from -0.61 13 weeks earlier",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.correlazione",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "r": -0.15,
          "r_prima": -0.61,
          "settimane": 13
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "direzione_dollar_index_bitcoin",
        "testo": "Bitcoin price and US dollar index (broad) moved in the same direction in 7 of the last 13 weeks",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.stessa_direzione",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "stessa_direzione": 7,
          "settimane": 13
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "stabile_dollar_index_bitcoin",
        "testo": "The correlation between US dollar index (broad) and Bitcoin price stayed between -0.76 and -0.15 over the last 13 weeks",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.stabile",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "minimo": -0.76,
          "massimo": -0.15
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "correlazione_nasdaq_bitcoin",
        "testo": "The 13-week correlation between Nasdaq Composite and Bitcoin price was -0.19, from +0.77 13 weeks earlier",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.correlazione",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "r": -0.19,
          "r_prima": 0.77,
          "settimane": 13
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "direzione_nasdaq_bitcoin",
        "testo": "Bitcoin price and Nasdaq Composite moved in the same direction in 8 of the last 13 weeks",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.stessa_direzione",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "stessa_direzione": 8,
          "settimane": 13
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "segno_nasdaq_bitcoin",
        "testo": "The correlation between Nasdaq Composite and Bitcoin price changed sign over the last 13 weeks",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.cambio_segno",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "minimo": -0.19,
          "massimo": 0.73
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "correlazione_dollar_index_stablecoin",
        "testo": "The 13-week correlation between US dollar index (broad) and Stablecoin supply was +0.10, from -0.46 13 weeks earlier",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.correlazione",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "r": 0.1,
          "r_prima": -0.46,
          "settimane": 13
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "direzione_dollar_index_stablecoin",
        "testo": "Stablecoin supply and US dollar index (broad) moved in the same direction in 6 of the last 13 weeks",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.stessa_direzione",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "stessa_direzione": 6,
          "settimane": 13
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      },
      {
        "id": "segno_dollar_index_stablecoin",
        "testo": "The correlation between US dollar index (broad) and Stablecoin supply changed sign over the last 13 weeks",
        "modello": "cruscotti.macro_x_crypto.cambio_segno",
        "contratto": "contratto",
        "numeri": {
          "minimo": -0.43,
          "massimo": 0.1
        },
        "misura": "correlazione",
        "finestra_giorni": 90,
        "base": 13,
        "base_minima": 11,
        "cancello": "passa"
      }
    ],
    "fonti": [
      "FRED (BAMLC0A4CBBBEY)",
      "FRED (DFII10)",
      "FRED (DTWEXBGS)",
      "FRED (NASDAQCOM)",
      "FRED (SP500)",
      "FRED (T10Y2Y)",
      "DefiLlama (value locked, stablecoins, fees)",
      "Coin Metrics Community Data (Bitcoin price)"
    ],
    "metodo": "correlation of weekly changes (log changes for prices, indexes and levels; differences for yields and spreads) over the last 13 and 26 closed weeks",
    "cancello": "ok",
    "cancello_nota": "gate result for the sentences: ok = at least one sentence passed; each sentence carries its own result; the values in tables and history are not certified one by one",
    "motivi": [],
    "immagini": {
      "1600x900": "immagine_2026-10-08_1600x900.png",
      "1080x1350": "immagine_2026-10-08_1080x1350.png"
    },
    "immagine_titolo": "The 13-week correlation between US 10-year real yield and Bitcoin price was -0.25, from -0.56 13 weeks earlier",
    "carta_x": {
      "file": "x_card.png",
      "formato": "1200x675",
      "data": "2026-10-04",
      "nuova": false,
      "motivo": "data older than 7 days",
      "modello": "F",
      "frase_id": "correlazione_nasdaq_bitcoin",
      "titolo": "Bitcoin and the Nasdaq: correlation −0.19, from +0.77",
      "note": [
        "22 Jun 2026: +0.77",
        "21 Sep: −0.19",
        "High: +0.78, 8 Jun 2026"
      ]
    },
    "immagini_problemi": 0,
    "generato_il": "2026-10-09T03:55:29Z"
  }
}