About

I am Luca Valente. I spent a career as a lawyer, then six years in crypto research and editorial work, and I now publish independent research notes on what people actually do on chain: money parked in applications, fees paid, transactions sent, code written. I read those numbers first and form an opinion second, I say which is which, and I say what would prove me wrong and by when.

How I read these numbers

I never read a number on its own: I compare it with its peers, meaning entities of the same kind, so chains with chains and exchanges with exchanges. When a note says a change is "net of the group", it means the 30-day change minus the median change of those peers, so a move the whole group made does not count as news. When a note says a measure is inside its "normal range", it means the measure moved less than it usually does in its own history. Every note names the date by which its reading has to be checked again.

The check uses a threshold of 5 points: if, over the next 30 days, the measure that carries the reading moves more than 5 points away from its group's median, the reading is dropped. Five points is the line past which a gap is no longer treated as ordinary noise between peers.