Training note, written on 27 September 2026 from data as of 23 September 2026. Not part of the published series.

Tezos: capital fleeing but price rising

Luca Valente — dictated note, lightly edited

On Tezos stablecoins collapsed while the price is rising. XTZ, the token of Tezos, rose 23.6 points in the month, much more than the other chains, while stablecoins on the chain fell 40.2 points against the group. It is a very wide divergence: XTZ outperforms the group while the measured stablecoin stock on the chain falls.

Tezos is a chain that has its own token, XTZ, and I compared it with 37 chains. XTZ is the token of the whole chain, so its price can be put next to its actual use. But it is very small, so fees and development are too small to be counted: fees are 129 dollars a day.

So let's look in detail at the most important data. The strongest figure is these stablecoins, which fell 39.8% in the month while the reference group stayed flat. The price rose 23.6 points above the group. Deposited capital rose 12.1%, exactly like the reference group. So the measured stablecoin stock fell, but capital in the applications stays.

Some considerations I made are that the stablecoins 40.2 points below the group, in my view, make it unlikely that the price rise is supported by new money, even if they do not rule it out; they do not rule it out, and to rule it out we would need to understand where that money went and who is buying XTZ. Because the fact that the group is flat makes it less likely that this is something concerning the whole sector: in the other chains the stablecoins stayed flat, as I said before, while deposited capital increased, but it increased identically on the other blockchains, so the difference, let's say, is made only by the price.

Now, those who think the rise is justified have an argument that in my opinion is strong: because the last time we saw the price of Tezos falling, which was on 3 August, we were wrong twice, at one week and at one month. Moreover, those who support this thesis could add that deposited capital is in line with the group, so this blockchain is not emptying out completely. The divergence is there, but this blockchain has already betrayed one forecast, so we have to be careful.

Moreover, the data do not say why these stablecoins left, nor who is buying XTZ: there are no announcements or news. Not having measured wallets, we do not even know where this drop comes from. So this 39.8% outflow has a cause, but unfortunately with these data we do not see it.

Now we will look, over the next month, at whether the stablecoins measured so far grow more than five points above the median of the other blockchains. In that case the price movement would also be supported by fundamentals, especially compared with the others in the group. So over the next 30 days we will look first of all at the stablecoins, because if they stay the same or even decrease, the divergence widens; and then we will look at the price. And by 23 October we have to see whether the stablecoins of the chain grow more than five points: in that case the judgment falls.

Data: DefiLlama, GitHub; 30-day sums for flows, end-of-window for stocks; peer group: 37 chains, one product per family; as of 23 September 2026.

Peer group: 37 chains tracked by DefiLlama (who they are). 'Net of the group' is the 30-day change minus the group's median.

Not financial advice. This is a research note based on public on-chain data.